Spring 2012
Look... The Curve is Pointing in the Right Direction!

For the first time since 2008, the average sale price of Summit County properties has increased.
Average prices for all properties sold increased by 13% over the 1st Quarter of 2011 and prices for previously owned properties increased by 22%.

These are averages for only the first 3 months of both years, but last year, prices strengthened through the year.
There’s lots of the year left to go and conditions will change, but the big story is that prices have stopped falling for the past several months. If you are waiting for lower prices than these, you are probably miscalculating.
The number sold has increased by only about 4% over last year to date, but the inventory has been stuck for six months at about 1700 for sale. 1300 properties sold last year and we can expect 1500 to sell this year. Clearly, more balanced supply and demand has something to do with higher prices.
Keystone leads the way with a 23% price gain in the First Quarter. Breckenridge and Dillon/Summit Cove tied for second with about 13% higher prices. Overall, Summit County prices are nearly 9% ahead of last year’s total.

Right now buyers are struggling to not be the first to pay more than the last sale price. This is making for some difficult negotiations. But that ship has sailed in many neighborhoods,
Motivated and distressed sellers have been shaken out of the market months ago and we are down to the ones that really don’t have to sell. They are pricing realistically, but aren’t tolerating the 85% of list offers any more. In fact, the average listed to sold value so far this year as been 94% for all residential sales.
Those few foreclosures that appear these days go quickly, often to investor groups who will take profit in the next year or so.
Lots of mattress cash is coming out and cash or large money down deals are the norm. Lenders are missing the recovery as they continue to roam the sidelines looking for the 50% down buyers. On the other hand, they won’t be saddled with as many 30 year loans at 4% if they refuse to lend so there may be some method to the madness.
If this is truly the bottom, prices are still higher than in all but four of the past 28 years. The average price is now only 12% lower than the high in 2008. Last year it was 17% lower so you’ve already given back 5% of the bargain you were waiting for.
And the best remaining bargain is land. With construction loans dried up and lots of nice homes priced less than it costs to build, land sales have stopped cold.

But after dropping 50% in value since 2008, even land is recovering slightly right now.
There’s still almost none left vacant in Summit County and none left to subdivide, so when construction begins again, land prices will explode. Cash buyers who can bank land now will be very happy in a few years… and almost no one is doing it.
Our market has a long way to go to full recovery, but the process is solidly under way.

Chuck Leathers, CRS
Owner/Broker
888/485-2300

60A Main St./Box 4514,
Frisco, Colorado 80443
E-mail me at chuckleathers@realtor.com
Go to http://www.chuckleathersre.com/ to see all Summit County listings