Ridiculously Low Inventory Still Hinders the Market

This has been an exceptionally up and down year for sales in the County.  
In the first nine months, three have had significantly lower numbers sold than in the previous year.  September was the latest with eleven percent fewer sales than the previous year.  This is troubling because August, September and October usually bring the highest number of closings for the year.buyers-sabotage-02
August was up by only four percent.  October needs to be busy to bring the market back up to last year’s total number of sales at 2107.
There have been two months with significantly more sales than the year before.   The rest have followed last year pretty closely.
Average prices, on the other hand, are still well above $600,000.  Again, this is the first time in history that the average sale price has been above that number.  It looks like prices will stay at this record high for the rest of the year.
Both of these trends are the result of the near total lack of attainably priced inventory.  At the start of October, the number of properties offered fell back to just over 700, about the number that were offered last May.
There have never been even close to 1000 properties on the market at one time this year.  
And many properties that are listed are vacant land.  There were only 440 residences for sale at the beginning of October and only 235 of those were priced at under $1 million.
For reference, 1179 residences sold for less than $1 million through September while 239 sold for more than that.
Yes, the million-dollar market is still over supplied and the under $1 million market remains severely under supplied.
New construction can’t fill the gap in Summit County.  There isn’t enough land left to build on and that which can be built is too expensive to make sense of building lower priced residences.
There is no relief from this situation.  When demand spikes in the future, the affordable/attainable market will disappear.  
With Dillon Valley East one-bedroom units going for nearly $200,000, it probably already has.
The model for this kind of market is Aspen.  It, too is surrounded by National Forest or deed restricted land and is largely built-out.  There is essentially no affordable housing for 40 miles and prices average in the mid-millions.
Summit County has already experienced the demise of the under $200,000 market with only 100 or so sold this year, usually in minutes.  A grand total of seven residences sold for under $150,000.
While prices may… probably will… decline in the future, we’ll probably never see the average price under $500,000 again.
No wonder no one’s selling.

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